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What does the win rate even tell you?

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AncientRuffian #1 Posted 03 February 2023 - 04:02 AM


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I've been playing this game for a few weeks now and my win rate has settled around 50%, which is what I'd expect, given that everyone who plays is roughly similar in outlook and aptitude. (This is not an invitation to rail against "nubs" spoling the game. If you want to do that, go find a padded cell somewhere.) Sometimes you end up on a team that just clicks and slaughters the opposition, at other times you're on the team being slaughtered. So 50% feels about right. Some variation upwards when things are going well, and downwards when they're not. (They haven't been today, which is probably why I've been moved to write this.)


However, I get the feeling that players are judged on their win rate. But hang on: in only some battles does the player's indivividual contribution - or the lack of it - make a blind bit of difference. Over the last couple of days I have been one-shotted out of the game three times. Just spotted the enemy, getting into position and bang! Gone.(Tank destroyers. I hate playing them or being played by them.) Two of those battles my team went on to win. I contributed 0 to the victory, but it's part of my 50% win rate. Conversely, a few times I've fought hard, racked up an impressive damage score, but my team has lost, so despite my best efforts, my win rate goes down. Does the win rate really mean anything at all, given how much chance is built into the game? And given we know the RNG can decide that a series of direct hits in one battle "bounced off" while in another they  knock out the target? Much better to judge players on how much damage they have been able to do.


Please feel to argue the toss. I'd like to think I'm not the only person alive on this forum. : )

Edited by AncientRuffian, 03 February 2023 - 04:03 AM.

awesome_guy290 #2 Posted 03 February 2023 - 02:03 PM


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Generally, better players have higher winrates, some somehow reaching 70%+ win rate, absolutely ludicrous. But do not worry, your winrate is above average, those who judge players with lower winrates are those who you should never care about. Ignorance is key. There is always a block chat function. Have fun tanking!

Lord_Melchett #3 Posted 04 February 2023 - 03:19 AM

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Short term winrate is not particularly useful - it is, as you say, dependent on many variables. 


As the battle count increases, win rate becomes a much more reliable indicator of a player's overall skill at the game - in the sense that a player with 60% 30-day winrate might be a good player, but a long term player with a win rate over 60% is almost certainly a good player.  Even then, those players average 4 losses per 10 battles.  Even 70%ers (which is an exceptional win rate) average 3 losses per 10 battles.  Having a high win rate doesn't guarantee a win for your team, but it does shift the probability of a win in that team's favour.


Apart from the granular single-battle variables that you mention, one to look out for in long term stats is average tier.  It is obviously much easier to maintain a higher win rate against newer players in lower tiers than it is in higher tiers against (on average) better players.


One further thing - win rate only applies to regular battles.  You have no real way of knowing whether a player is mainly playing regular battles or special modes, so using historic win rate to judge a player's current skill level is even sketchier.


Overall, win rate for a player with a high battle count is a reasonable indicator of skill, but is only that.


Edited by Lord_Melchett, 04 February 2023 - 03:20 AM.

___CLUTCH___ #4 Posted 09 February 2023 - 06:42 AM


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Just play tiers you enjoy. Usually, your favorite tanks are the one you perform best in. Do that, and winrate will come easily. I've maintained mine for around 10k games that way. Good luck on the battlefield. :)

Mystrall_Snowlight #5 Posted 10 February 2023 - 11:51 AM


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Mostly as quick look about how good are you. As you progress, winrate become more reliable indicator.
But, it doesnt always the case, as you said, some people might be a good player but have terrible luck on matchmaking. Hence, there is WN rating. you can check yours or someone's else on Blitzstar
Most good and elite clans always see both your Winrate and WN8.

Also, are you light/medium tank user? its kinda hard for new player tho. But totally fun if you mastered on Map Knowledge and When to Retreat, Hold/Hide, or Flank. But needless to say, if you dont like the tank, try other tech tree, you might find tank that suits you.
Im from main Comet -> Tiger 2 -> WT Auf. Pz/Grillie 15 now. Used to hate playing TD

A wish, a prayer of reunion with the cherished one. As she waltz with destiny. Elegy of the Lonely Sea

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