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Jylpah #1 Posted 16 May 2020 - 09:59 AM

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Hello Fellow Tankers,

 

I have set up a new Blitz web site BlitzAnalysiz.com - a site focused on in-depth analysis of game statistics. From the site you can find answers to questions like:

  1. “What is the most over-powered tank in the game?"
  2. “What is the most played tank in the game?"
  3. “How is players’ WR distributed over the tiers?".

 

You won't find individual player statistics there, but the site focuses on the player base as the whole. The database consists of 600k+ players and more than 6bn battles and 115M individual player-tank records. This is just a hobby project for me to learn R, MongoDB and data analysis. 

 

The Relative WR graphsare maybe the most interesting part at the moment for the general player population. It tells how how many percentages higher WR in average the players reach in that tank vs. their other same tier tanks. This is very similar to BlitzStars Relative WR except it compares to same tier tanks only and the comparison point does not include the tank itself. This is the 2nd best measure of tank performance I am aware of. The best one is the Delta WR I used in the old Google Sheets graphs, but I have not had time to implement it yet to the new code base.

Hint: The tanks leading the chart are your best picks for stats-padding :rolleyes:

 

 

I have few things in in my backlog including:

  • Detailed pages for individual tanks
  • My "Delta WR" based tank performance analysis (if someone remembers those old charts)
  • Graphs per Player skill-level
  • Blog posts of analysis of different topics

 

But even now there are lot of graphs (1956 to be exact) to digest even for the most stats-hungry tank-nerds. :teethhappy: 

 

All the feedback is welcome. You may reach out at EU forums or via Discord (Jylpah#4662) or email Jylpah@gmail.com

 

Yeah, Nerdy "stuff"

 

PS. You may be also interested in my Python scripts to upload and analyze replays


Blitzanalysiz.com - In-depth analysis of Blitz game statistics  


Jylpah/blitz-tools      Python tools to upload and analyze replays
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erwin10001 #2 Posted 16 May 2020 - 01:02 PM

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Fantastic effort!

 

Tier 5 of course interests me and I notice that T1 Heavy is only no.14 in terms of average winrate, losing out to tanks like errr.... Angry Connor? Here's hoping that these stats will encourage WG to give T1 Heavy a small buff to its gun accuracy because it's gun is terrible!

 

But the relative WR stat is pretty interesting.

 


Edited by erwin10001, 16 May 2020 - 01:03 PM.


Jylpah #3 Posted 16 May 2020 - 01:21 PM

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View Posterwin10001, on 16 May 2020 - 03:02 PM, said:

Fantastic effort!

 

Tier 5 of course interests me and I notice that T1 Heavy is only no.14 in terms of average winrate, losing out to tanks like errr.... Angry Connor? Here's hoping that these stats will encourage WG to give T1 Heavy a small buff to its gun accuracy because it's gun is terrible!

 

But the relative WR stat is pretty interesting.


Hello! Actually T1 Heavy is one of the strongest tier V tanks. The Relative WR chartgives a better view of the tank performance since differences in the player population can be significant when comparing rare specialists’ tanks to popular tanks. 
 


Edited by Jylpah, 16 May 2020 - 01:21 PM.

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__iTATi__ #4 Posted 16 May 2020 - 02:30 PM

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Top stuff man!

 

On a side note, do not be discouraged if you do not get many comments here - there is only about 6 of us that post these days :D



Jylpah #5 Posted 16 May 2020 - 05:58 PM

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View Post__iTATi__, on 16 May 2020 - 04:30 PM, said:

Top stuff man!

 

On a side note, do not be discouraged if you do not get many comments here - there is only about 6 of us that post these days :D

 

Thanks!

 

Then we are seven :teethhappy:

 

I don't think the site will be much of interest for a casual player. Just for a handful of hard-core tank-nerds out there. For me it's just a hobby and fun way to learn R and data analysis. 


Edited by Jylpah, 16 May 2020 - 05:58 PM.

Blitzanalysiz.com - In-depth analysis of Blitz game statistics  


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Lord_Melchett #6 Posted 17 May 2020 - 11:41 PM

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Hi Jylpah,

 

I saw that you posted about this over on Eu forum, so I have had a look already.  There's some interesting stuff there.  Thanks for all your work!



AcidE #7 Posted 18 May 2020 - 01:22 AM

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This is top notch. Thanks a million for your tremendous effort Jylpah! +1 upvote for you
wgreed

Jylpah #8 Posted 18 May 2020 - 07:58 AM

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View PostLord_Melchett, on 18 May 2020 - 01:41 AM, said:

Hi Jylpah,

 

I saw that you posted about this over on Eu forum, so I have had a look already.  There's some interesting stuff there.  Thanks for all your work!

 

View Postaazim, on 18 May 2020 - 03:22 AM, said:

This is top notch. Thanks a million for your tremendous effort Jylpah! +1 upvote for you

 

Thanks guys!


Blitzanalysiz.com - In-depth analysis of Blitz game statistics  


Jylpah/blitz-tools      Python tools to upload and analyze replays
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Player______1 #9 Posted 29 May 2020 - 12:51 PM

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Great site.  Very nice analysis.

 



Lord_Melchett #10 Posted 30 May 2020 - 12:12 AM

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Hi Jylpah,

 

I followed with some interest a long thread on EU about rockets.  I'm not going to revisit rockets here, but the thread had some really interesting statistics from your site that you were using to, essentially, argue about whether the rocket tanks had 'broken the game'.

 

The most useful stat that you were relying upon was the average win rate for a tank, compared with the players average win rate at that tier.  That seems like a pretty fair stat to use to consider how OP (or effective) a particular tank is, as it (presumably) should measure the effect of the tank on the player's performance.  At least, better than other statistics or no statistics at all (i.e. "the vibe").

 

This got me thinking about using win rate for particular tanks as a marker of effectiveness.  It may seem obvious that win rate is the obvious statistic to measure tank effectiveness, but there is one aspect of its use for particular tanks that I thought about, and would like to know your view.

 

When a new line of tanks comes out (as it did for T92E1 and Sheridan), there are so many of them in game that each team will have multiples of them.  It is fairly obvious that, where both teams have the same number of the same tank, the effect on win rate for the tank is to balance out.  Do you take account of this in your stat analysis, or is it something that you assume 'washes out' in the numbers as more battles are played?

 

Just a passing thought ...

 

Cheers,



Jylpah #11 Posted 04 June 2020 - 08:49 PM

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View PostLord_Melchett, on 30 May 2020 - 02:12 AM, said:

Hi Jylpah,

 

I followed with some interest a long thread on EU about rockets.  I'm not going to revisit rockets here, but the thread had some really interesting statistics from your site that you were using to, essentially, argue about whether the rocket tanks had 'broken the game'.

 

The most useful stat that you were relying upon was the average win rate for a tank, compared with the players average win rate at that tier.  That seems like a pretty fair stat to use to consider how OP (or effective) a particular tank is, as it (presumably) should measure the effect of the tank on the player's performance.  At least, better than other statistics or no statistics at all (i.e. "the vibe").

 

This got me thinking about using win rate for particular tanks as a marker of effectiveness.  It may seem obvious that win rate is the obvious statistic to measure tank effectiveness, but there is one aspect of its use for particular tanks that I thought about, and would like to know your view.

 

When a new line of tanks comes out (as it did for T92E1 and Sheridan), there are so many of them in game that each team will have multiples of them.  It is fairly obvious that, where both teams have the same number of the same tank, the effect on win rate for the tank is to balance out.  Do you take account of this in your stat analysis, or is it something that you assume 'washes out' in the numbers as more battles are played?

 

Just a passing thought ...

 

Cheers,

 

Hello !

 

Yeah, That ATGM Thread. I hope you read the last comments since I actually changed my position on ATGMs. During 6.8 I was not bothered by the missiles at all personally nor could I find proof that T92E1 was somehow really OP, but the situation has changed. The missiles are used much more skillfully and I feel the mechanic is not good for the game. I watched have watched many Juicy_Tender_Steak's (Juicy_LGN nowadays) streams and he is pretty good with the missiles. Sometimes he even feels pity for his opponents when he uses missiles behind a ridge.

 

About the statistics. I am actually in the middle of writing a blog post (or actually a series) about measuring tank performance and why I think the Relative WR is the (2nd) best measure. My simple post has turned into wall-of-text-and-graphs monster so I will split it into pieces. I am also going to change a bit how the calculations will be done due to things I did not discover earlier.

 

I am not sure does the scenario you describe actually happen "in every game", even though meeting mirrored T92E1 teams was a common sight during 6.8-6.9 (it was the most popular tank in the game). Mind plays tricks easily and we see patterns everywhere whether real or imaginary. But there is no way to verify this based on the stats retrieved via WG API. The Relative WR compares the player's performance in a tank to the same player's WR at the tier. So it only matters how much more/less players win in a tank vs their tier average other tank. The average of the players' WR in a tank does not matter.

 

 

 

There are other factors that cause bias in the numbers for new tanks:

  • Usually the most active (and better than average) players get the tanks first (especially high tiers). That distorts the overall average relative WR. I am planning to add relative WR graphs per player skill category (tier WR <40%, 40-50%, 50-60%, 60%+)
  • Most of the players are grinding the tanks. If one plays on non-premium account, does not use boosters and has lowish WR, the stock grind can take many battles (300+) at tiers IX-X. I have ended up making an average for the "stock-grind" battles and considering only players who have more than the required total battles in the tank. This again limits the player sample population during the first update, which can create bias.

Blitzanalysiz.com - In-depth analysis of Blitz game statistics  


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Lord_Melchett #12 Posted 05 June 2020 - 01:04 AM

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Hi Jylpah, thanks for your detailed response.

 

My question about the stats for win rate where new tanks are so prevalent that there are multiples of the same tank on each side in a battle was actually about using win rate analysis generally, rather than specifically about a player's relative win rate.  I didn't make that distinction clearly enough in my post, so, my bad.

 

While not specifically on that point, I think your final comments about the other biases that can affect new tanks, and the measures that you are taking to address those, would probably reduce any distorting effect of new tank spam, though not eliminate it (if a distorting effect in fact exists).

 

Cheers,



Jylpah #13 Posted 05 June 2020 - 08:53 AM

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View PostLord_Melchett, on 05 June 2020 - 03:04 AM, said:

Hi Jylpah, thanks for your detailed response.

 

My question about the stats for win rate where new tanks are so prevalent that there are multiples of the same tank on each side in a battle was actually about using win rate analysis generally, rather than specifically about a player's relative win rate.  I didn't make that distinction clearly enough in my post, so, my bad.

 

I think the vehicle class matching in MM combined with hugely popular (light) tanks can impact on the tanks average WR across all the players. Why light tanks (only)? Since there are least different light tanks at the high tiers (2, soon 3) and those have stricter MM rules vs meds/HTs. 

 

But would it impact on the relative WR? I am not sure about that. I think it would not - at least for relative WR for specific player skill category.

 


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Jylpah #14 Posted 09 June 2020 - 05:47 PM

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Hello fellow stats-nerds,

 

I went to write a “post” about measuring tank performance and Relative WR.

 

https://blitzanalysiz.com/blog/2020-06-08_measuring_tank_performance/

 

Measuring tank performance

 

Over-Powered (OP) tanks are maybe the 2nd most popular topic on Blitz YouTube videos and online chats - right after “the Matchmaker”. I have long presented that if a tank is “OP”, it has to be visible in statistics. Otherwise there is only qualitative / subjective views left and those come in all sorts.

 

 

 

People are susceptible to all kinds of biases in their thinking. Getting ammoracked by a Death Star will raise suspicion that Death Star is an OP tank even it is actually the worst tier X tank. Anecdotal experiences distort opinions and no one remembers those countless of battles where a DS was at the bottom on the list. Therefore, tank performance is not a thing that we should vote about, but a thing we can measure with statistics.

 

How to measure performance in the game?

 

Let’s discuss first how to measure performance in the game. I am a proponent of win rate being the best measure for performance (player or tank)– not average damage, not average kills, and not speed, not alpha damage or any other attribute or characteristics. The reason for choosing win rate over other variables is the fact that winning is the objective of the game and all the damage, kills, spotting etc. are just means to win the game. Why to measure the proxy variables when you can measure the final variable itself?

 

There are caveats in using WR as performance measure:

 

  1. It requires lot of battles for WR to settle near one’s performance level due to both MM and RNG: It take 400 battles to reach +/- 5% accuracy, 10000 battles to reach +/- 1% accuracy and 1 million battles! to reach 0.1% accuracy with 95% confidence level. Check this link at PC WoT forums for details.
  2. Platoon rate impacts on WR but cannot be distilled well from the stats since WG does not publish detailed platoon rate per tank played. Platooning with a good player can lift one’s WR 5-15%.
  3. Career WR measures historical average, not one’s present performance level, and reacts slowly once the player has lot (10k+) battles.
  4. WG’s new “newbie MM queue” has distorted the Career stats for rerollers big time. This distorts both tank and player average WR. (Just ignore global & career WR).
  5. Some tanks are more powerful than other. Comparing different players’ WR in different tanks or global WR does not tell much.
  6. Different tiers have different level of difficulty. Global / Average WR is close to useless in measuring player / tank performance.
  7. Stock tanks’ performance is significantly lower compared to maxed-out tanks’ performance.

 

But other performance measures have issues too and can be gamed; Easiest way to increase average damage play more high tiers and more TDs, WN8 can be gamed by playing popular tech three tanks that are difficult for below average players and not too popular among the unicums. Despite all the issues related to WR, I consider it the best performance measure over large number of battles and in case of tanks, over large number of players since it measures directly the objective of the game (=to win battles). It is also more understandable measure vs. somewhat abstract indexes. But I believe performance indicators like WN8 which based on “input stats” (average damage, kills, spots) give more accurate view on players’ short-term performance (< 100 battles). Now going back to the tank performance.

 

So Average WR it is then, right?

 

Not so fast. Average WR of a tank is a good starter, but it itself has its own biases. Let’s have a look on two tier IX mediums: AMX 30 1er prototype and Prototipo Standard B. Everything here is based on 6.9 data.

 

 

Tank Average WR Players
Prototipo Standard B 52.3 7622
AMX 30 1er prototype 56.5 3414

 

Both the tanks have been also played by thousands of players, but the AMX seems to have significantly higher average WR. Many would be tempted to claim the AMX is a better tank than Standard B. But is it?

 

Continue reading at blitzanalysiz.com

 


Edited by Jylpah, 09 June 2020 - 07:22 PM.

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__iTATi__ #15 Posted 09 June 2020 - 08:42 PM

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Interesting stuff. So, what tank really is the most broken in the game? Is it the the obvious choices of the Smasher/Drac/Helsing etc or is it something else? 

BossArdnutz #16 Posted 10 June 2020 - 12:56 AM

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@Jylpah, did you run ANOVA or t-test to check for significance? Particularly for the top player skill bracket where the tank relative WR was an outlier and the sample size was smaller?

erwin10001 #17 Posted 10 June 2020 - 01:08 AM

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super interesting analysis.

 

I hope that you'll do another comparison of a similar 'pair of tanks' to see whether you get a similar result. maybe users here can chip in with suggestions which would be good 'matched pairs' to analyse.



Jylpah #18 Posted 10 June 2020 - 07:02 AM

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View Post__iTATi__, on 09 June 2020 - 10:42 PM, said:

Interesting stuff. So, what tank really is the most broken in the game? Is it the the obvious choices of the Smasher/Drac/Helsing etc or is it something else? 

 

Good question. Here is a graph of top the tanks by Relative WR.

 

Your question made me think I should reorg/rename the graph titles at the site to make it clearer which performance indicator to focus. Thanks!


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Jylpah #19 Posted 10 June 2020 - 07:19 AM

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View PostBossArdnutz, on 10 June 2020 - 02:56 AM, said:

@Jylpah, did you run ANOVA or t-test to check for significance? Particularly for the top player skill bracket where the tank relative WR was an outlier and the sample size was smaller?

 

Excellent point! I should. I have been hesitating to put too much formulas / math there not to alienate all those four visitors, but I could run Anova tables and put those in the spoiler/expand boxes. Let me think about this.


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Jylpah #20 Posted 10 June 2020 - 07:44 AM

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View Posterwin10001, on 10 June 2020 - 03:08 AM, said:

super interesting analysis.

 

I hope that you'll do another comparison of a similar 'pair of tanks' to see whether you get a similar result. maybe users here can chip in with suggestions which would be good 'matched pairs' to analyse.

 

Hello, I am about to add tanks/tier/type pages showing similar graphs (and more) for all the same tier same type tanks. And finally I plan to add tank-specific pages for all the tanks and compare to the means of the same tier/type.

 

It would be also great to allow users to pick whatever tanks and compare them, but that would require interactive charts. At the moment the site is 100% static content: HTML + PNG graphs. If I find a way to use interactive charts (HTMLwidgets?) on the site like BlitzStars, I might be able to let the visitors to do more tailored comparisons there. If someone happens to have good ideas how to do interactive graphs on static web pages (GitHub Pages + Hugo at the moment), I am happy to hear. So far I have been told to look at gatsby.js (React/JS page generator), Nivo charts and Chart.js. This is not a high prio thing at the moment, but definitely something I will look into it once I get some time to study. I am not a web developer at all, but just learning by doing.

 


Blitzanalysiz.com - In-depth analysis of Blitz game statistics  


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