Jump to content


Events = Negative Win Rate for Play for free players


  • Please log in to reply
10 replies to this topic

Poll: Events = Negative Win Rate for Free to Play Players ? (7 members have cast votes)

Are you a Free to Play Player ? And do Events tend to lead to loss in your WinRate ?

  1. Yes I am a free to play player, and my win rate goes down during events (6 votes [85.71%])

    Percentage of vote: 85.71%

  2. No, I am a free to play player and have not noticed any impact upon my Win Rate (1 vote [14.29%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.29%

  3. I pay to play so dont care (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. Dont know (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote Hide poll

Creighton_Abrams #1 Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:12 PM

    First Lieutenant

  • Member
  • 24526 battles
  • 702
  • [XYZ_1]
  • Member since:
    11-18-2016

What are your thoughts ?


I know, Paying players can say they arent and abuse the stats , but hopefully the majority will give an insight.

 



Creighton_Abrams #2 Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:17 PM

    First Lieutenant

  • Member
  • 24526 battles
  • 702
  • [XYZ_1]
  • Member since:
    11-18-2016

Perhaps WG should split rankings into F2P and P2P ? 

Free to Play and Pay to Play....

but then that would I guess be subject to complaint bias, and yet again I'd be bottom of the barrel - for trying to raise the issue upon behalf of other players who do not pay, to play.

 


Edited by Creighton_Abrams, 04 May 2019 - 06:18 PM.


TnkCmndrToo #3 Posted 04 May 2019 - 10:21 PM

    First Lieutenant

  • Member
  • 5735 battles
  • 606
  • [FOES]
  • Member since:
    02-26-2017

I've had literally nothing but straight losses lol. Even in my best tanks, all that happens is that my team dies before me.

 

I'm not a great player, and I'm usually the last to complain about teams, but my WR has gone down about 0.20% - that is pretty big for someone with 5.4k battles. And this is the first time my WR's suffered like this during an event. Hmmm. I wonder if the pay-to-play guys are doing any better.

 

We'll see if my situation improves...



pegasoos #4 Posted 05 May 2019 - 01:33 AM

    Corporal

  • Member
  • 1106 battles
  • 14
  • [MAGU_]
  • Member since:
    11-09-2017

I have started the event with multiple accounts, to get up to the 10k free XP mainly. WR down on those with lower WR, but loosing strikes on all.

Typical with an event that is exceptionally easy, but once more linked to WIN. If the wins were occurring in random pattern, as in play 10 games to win 5 it would be be too easy.

But I do not think it is "free to play" related. You get the 3 days of free premium with just 2 wins... and then you run on it anyway. Not sure

what algorithm would make the difference between players from there. 


Edited by pegasoos, 05 May 2019 - 01:53 AM.


erwin10001 #5 Posted 05 May 2019 - 07:38 AM

    First Lieutenant

  • Member
  • 42037 battles
  • 994
  • [NETS]
  • Member since:
    11-12-2016

My theory is that new players are given preferential MM to give him a comfortable game and encourage them to spend gold at the start.

New event= more new players

The more new players with preferential MM, the worse it is for regular players.

 



pegasoos #6 Posted 05 May 2019 - 11:24 AM

    Corporal

  • Member
  • 1106 battles
  • 14
  • [MAGU_]
  • Member since:
    11-09-2017

View Posterwin10001, on 05 May 2019 - 07:38 AM, said:

My theory is that new players are given preferential MM to give him a comfortable game and encourage them to spend gold at the start.

New event= more new players

The more new players with preferential MM, the worse it is for regular players.

 

 

If that is the case (which makes sense somehow), why are there still so many LOW win rate players among them? True, there are also some who have win rates where you truly wonder how they could get them. Both having so many utterly incompetent ( as they lack both experience and knowledge about gameplay), players all over the tiers and up to 10, -and having them distributed unevenly too often i teams, upsets many if not all the decent, better and excellent players. That's for a fact... no need to come up with any adventurous theories or prove this statistically. The other simple fact, that WG continuously talks around and avoids the topic of MM in EVERY regard, and time and time again - is evidence enough that they either do not care or want their profit oriented algorithm untouched. There is no question there are algorithms in place, and there is no question about it being first and foremost programmed to incite both, new players to stay AND to spend. 

Edited by pegasoos, 05 May 2019 - 11:26 AM.


BossArdnutz #7 Posted 05 May 2019 - 12:40 PM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Member
  • 16878 battles
  • 318
  • [DERPU]
  • Member since:
    03-30-2018
My win rate has been pretty steady during the event - it hovers around 51%, +/- about 0.1%. It was around 45-48% for a long time so I'm happy with the improvement!

I do think there has been a change recently, and it's either the 5.10 update with the rather excellent new mission system or possibly the current event or even a combination. I think there are more really good players turning up to farm the missions and events (I think I'm seeing more 60%+ players with high game counts) balanced by more new players who are still learning the game and 40-45% players with high game counts who have probably failed their way up the tiers pretty much like I did until recently.

So I'm in a funny place as an average-to-ok player. If there's a couple of 60+ players on red I'll probably make a mistake and get deleted early for very low damage, if the other tanks on my team are good & lucky they might still carry me to a win but it won't be easy. I'm not good enough to carry a team of potatoes if the other team is of similar skill to me; of both teams are mostly potatoes I can maybe manage a carry or at least contribute top damage in a team where the next highest player does less but still decent. If my team has the unicum players, and the reds don't, then the unis will probably stomp the reds flat before I can contribute much and I'll find myself putting shells into tanks that blow up just before I hit them because someone on my team had positioned better and fired faster.

Because there are more of both good and bad players around now, the chance that a random selection will contain more of them on one team than the other also goes up, and my chance of getting two basically even teams has gone down. I'm more likely to see big margin games one way or the other and since I'm not good enough to produce one myself I'm more likely to be on the losing side of those.

Plus I notice nights where I do lose a lot, usually I'm particularly tired or I've had too much to drink or I'm stressing out and not thinking straight, so I just don't make good decisions and my reflexes are off. I don't think the MM has much to do with any of that!

TnkCmndrToo #8 Posted 06 May 2019 - 05:37 AM

    First Lieutenant

  • Member
  • 5735 battles
  • 606
  • [FOES]
  • Member since:
    02-26-2017

View PostBossArdnutz, on 06 May 2019 - 12:40 AM, said:

Plus I notice nights where I do lose a lot, usually I'm particularly tired or I've had too much to drink or I'm stressing out and not thinking straight, so I just don't make good decisions and my reflexes are off. I don't think the MM has much to do with any of that!

 

Never tank and drink, Boss. Crucial point :P 

 

 

Well I've just analysed the games I played over the weekend. 10 games played, on all of tiers 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. All were played consecutively, in a mix of premiums and tech tree tanks.

 

3 wins, 7 losses (30% WR)

2 upper tier, 8 lower tier (upper tier once in 5, once in 7)

 

Very similar results on the next day.

 

Perhaps I just got super unlucky...? 



Rinskiev #9 Posted 07 May 2019 - 03:57 AM

    Sergeant

  • Member
  • 10884 battles
  • 185
  • [AUSIE]
  • Member since:
    07-01-2014

I tend to avoid events. Specially events that require no skill. You just need to push "battle" long enough to get some wins and win whatever coin they invent to get the prize. Brainless players will swarm the fields and there, skills have an smaller impact. I jut go out, if I do, with my best tanks or otherwise my stats and my view of this game suffer.

 

 



__GetFunked__ #10 Posted 07 May 2019 - 07:40 AM

    Sergeant

  • Member
  • 6715 battles
  • 208
  • [GNG]
  • Member since:
    01-27-2019

View PostTnkCmndrToo, on 06 May 2019 - 05:37 AM, said:

 

Never tank and drink, Boss. Crucial point :P 

 

 

Well I've just analysed the games I played over the weekend. 10 games played, on all of tiers 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. All were played consecutively, in a mix of premiums and tech tree tanks.

 

3 wins, 7 losses (30% WR)

2 upper tier, 8 lower tier (upper tier once in 5, once in 7)

 

Very similar results on the next day.

 

Perhaps I just got super unlucky...? 

 

I only ever play when drinking. No I do not have a drinking problem lol - just that I can only play on my weekends in the main and these are my beer days as well. I do wonder what my stats might look if I didnt play while supping the good stuff. I do admit that once ive had too much to drink, I lose a lot more so have to force myself to stop playing when i get a little too worse for wear.

BossArdnutz #11 Posted 08 May 2019 - 03:39 AM

    Staff Sergeant

  • Member
  • 16878 battles
  • 318
  • [DERPU]
  • Member since:
    03-30-2018

 

Ok, so I dug out my last few days of play from Blitzstars. My overall WR since the event started comes out at 52.79% over 305 battles, which is above my career WR and also slightly above my 30-day WR. So I definitely have not gone backwards during the event.

 

Statistics

Medals

Date

Battles

Winrate

Platoon

F8P

DR

KDR

DPB

KPB

Spots

Hit rate

Survival

Ras (7)

Pool (6)

Radley (5)

Top Gun (4+)

May 7, 2019

45

51.11%

26.09%

37.50%

0.89

1.21

852

0.89

2.02

89.51%

26.67%

0

0

0

2

May 6, 2019

55

52.73%

58.62%

31.58%

0.74

0.54

705

0.35

1.20

79.68%

36.36%

0

0

0

0

May 4, 2019

66

62.12%

9.76%

21.05%

1.11

1.36

972

0.86

1.39

85.13%

36.36%

0

0

0

1

May 3, 2019

139

48.92%

17.65%

35.77%

1.22

1.34

1,069

0.88

1.15

80.99%

33.81%

0

0

0

3

Apr 30, 2019

73

43.84%

6.25%

36.96%

0.95

0.94

855

0.63

1.18

82.33%

32.88%

0

0

0

2

 

I also did a little digging to find something I read ages ago about how many battles you need to play before your winrate reflects anything other than random chance. It's about WOT rather than Blitz but I think the games are probably similar enough that it's still valid: http://forum.worldoftanks.eu/index.php?/topic/357838-winrate-for-mathematicians-a-quantitative-analysis/. It's really worth reading the whole post as it puts the whole winrate vs performance vs rigging idea into perspective.

 

The TLDR is that it takes over 10,000 battles to be certain that a 1% difference in WR is due to player performance and not random chance. In other words, at about 10k battles I can compare my 51% to another 10k player at 52% and be pretty certain that (s)he actually performs slightly better at the game than I do.

 

To be sure a 5% difference in WR is meaningful, you only need 400 battles. So if I play my 400 battles at a 52% WR, and TCC plays his 400 at a 55% WR, he might be performing better than me or he might just be lucky. However if I play 400 at 52% and he plays 400 at 57%, I can be pretty certain he is actually performing better than I am and it's not just MM and RNG smiling on him and frowning on me.

 

View PostTnkCmndrToo, on 06 May 2019 - 05:37 AM, said:

Well I've just analysed the games I played over the weekend. 10 games played, on all of tiers 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. All were played consecutively, in a mix of premiums and tech tree tanks.

 

3 wins, 7 losses (30% WR)

2 upper tier, 8 lower tier (upper tier once in 5, once in 7)

 

Very similar results on the next day.

 

Perhaps I just got super unlucky...? 

 

Unlucky, yes, but not "super" unlucky. From another post later in the thread I linked above, if you play 10 games a day for 1,000 days (aka just over 3 years) you reach 10,000 games. If at that point your overall WR is 60%; then on average you would expect to have had at least 100 days when your WR for that day was only 20% (i.e. you played 10 and only won 2). That works out at about 1 horrible day in every 100 days. It's also entirely probable that some of those 20% days will occur next to one another; but it would be very unlikely to get say 10 of them in a row.


Edited by BossArdnutz, 08 May 2019 - 03:40 AM.





1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users