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How to Spot a "Rigged" Game


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TnkCmndrToo #21 Posted 25 April 2019 - 10:06 AM

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View Post__GetFunked__, on 25 April 2019 - 09:47 PM, said:

 

I would like to do something like this myself but my playing time is more limited than ever these days (basically Sat/Sun) and don't really want to limit that more by filling out spreadsheets lol. Would be very interested to see the results of any of you guys doing it though. I would suggest screenshots of the results/teams page of each battle, accompanied with a spreadheet documenting the stats as you said above. At least then those that want to investigate can search the players in game and back up the findings with regards to their stats/experience.

 

I would then also take a screenshot of the ten battles that were consecutively played from your battle history screen - so that this screenshot can also be used to correlate with the results and show that those games were indeed consecutive. The experience gained from each battle shown in this screen will match those in the individual results.

 

Ah yes, that way we can show that they are consecutive. Thanks for pointing that out. Well, sounds like we've got everything we need. Will get started as soon as I have some game time. Esh is also on board and has already gotten underway, so let's see how it all goes!

 

 



TnkCmndrToo #22 Posted 25 April 2019 - 10:07 AM

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Wow. I just read this thread again. Us forum-goers are actually being productive, serious and methodical? What's happened to us? I thought this was the internet?

 

But hey, I'm not complaining :D



__GetFunked__ #23 Posted 25 April 2019 - 10:46 AM

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View PostEsh11, on 22 April 2019 - 06:15 AM, said:

I remember when I started playing 40% WR players used to be quite uncommon . In those days in order to find 40% WR players you had to go to certain special clans . 40% players were almost assumed to be trolls by default . Nowadays 40% players are so common . There will be 3 or 4 40% players on both teams  in virtually every game and you will frequently come across 37 - 38 % wr players as well . I do not understand why this change has happened . 

 

i remember that too.

 

I can only imagine it is something to do with the playerbase being much smaller and thus stats are more polarized than before. A good chunk of the more experienced players whether excellent/good/average/bad departed after many bad choices the game took on (spare parts etc). This means you're left with fewer players, either those that stuck with the game (more experienced) or those that are very new. So your're likely to have plenty of 50% and 40% (the average of the existing original playerbase), and a sprinkling of 60+ and 30% players making it up.

 

I dunno - well, perhaps it will improve once some of these 30-40 players learn the game through experience. 



Esh11 #24 Posted 25 April 2019 - 11:55 AM

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Okay this was tiring . And I'm too nub to know how to use a spread sheet so just writing things down .

Alright 10 consecutive games were played in Tier 7 Chinese Mt T34-1 . I haven't considered the first game in the screenshot of the notification page as I had played it a bit earlier in the morning . All games were played solo . All games were played in a proper way with a sincere effort to win so no crazy tactics or yolo runs . I had camo on , 2 provisions ( improved rations and improved fuel ) and 7 equipment . I had ping issues in three games . One of which might have resulted in a loss . 


Edited by Esh11, 25 April 2019 - 12:28 PM.

                                           

                                                                 

  


Esh11 #25 Posted 25 April 2019 - 11:57 AM

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G : Green team , R red team , AWR - Average win rate  , ABC - Average battle count

The players are listed as they appear on the battle results screen so the player listed first is the one who did the highest damage in that particular game . First the WR is listed / Battle count K

Game 1: Win (6-0) Supremacy/Bottom Tier

G : 49 /19K , 59/54K , 51/20K ,56/12k , 57/48k , 51/43K , 53/40K

G AWR : 53.7% , G ABC : 33.7K

R : 51/44k, 52/33k , 59/16k,55/66k,55/40k,48/19k,57/11k

R AWR : 53.8% , R ABC : 32.7

 

Game 2: Win (2-0) Encounter / Bottom Tier

G : 54/25k , 45/10k , 56/12k , 52/31k , 51/17k, 49/15K , 53/40K

G AWR : 51.4% , G ABC : 21.4K

R : 49/19k , 52/17k , 57/84k , 48/6k , 57/22k , 47/11k , 46 / 6k

R AWR : 50.8% , R ABC : 23.5K

 

Game 3: Loss (0-3) Encounter / Bottom Tier

G : 53/14k , 47/6k , 43/39k , 45/32k , 44/17k , 44/18k , 53/40k

G AWR : 47% , G ABC : 23.7K

R : 54/15k , 51/23k , 50/45k , 52/11k , 56/23k , 46/11k , 51/5k

R AWR : 51.4% , R ABC : 19K

 

Game 4: Loss (0-6) Encounter / Top Tier

G : 47/18k , 57/21k , 50/5k , 50/7k , 49/33k , 48/10k , 53/40k

G AWR : 50.5% , G ABC : 19.1K

R : 64/22k , 52/13k , 51/44k , 50/15k , 53/40k , 47/10k , 51/25k

R AWR : 52.5% , R ABC : 24.1K

 

Game 5: Win(4-0) Encounter / Bottom Tier

G : 42/14k , 60/7k , 53/22k , 51/47k , 48/23k , 43/6k , 53/40k

G AWR : 50% , G ABC : 22.7k

R : 53/21k , 61/41k , 47/11k , 57/36k , 44/6k , 45/55k , 49/7k

R AWR : 50.8% , R ABC : 25.2K

 

Game 6: Win(6-0) Supremacy / Top Tier

G : 48/35k , 53/47k, 53/22k , 51/7k , 44/5k , 46/2k , 53/40k

G AWR : 49.7% , G ABC : 22.5k

R : 41/13k , 48/10k , 47/5k , 48/9k , 53/24k , 47/15k , 51/34k

R AWR : 47.8% , R ABC : 15.7K

 

Game 7: Loss(0-6) Encounter / Bottom Tier

G : 58/67k , 52/14k , 52/51k , 49/44k , 45/15k , 44/12k , 53/40k

G AWR : 50.4% , G ABC : 34.7k

R : 61/41k , 46/42k , 47/10k , 46/21k , 50/20k , 48/9k , 44/30k

R AWR : 48.8% , R ABC : 24.7K

 

Game 8: Win(6-0) Supremacy / Bottom Tier

G : 48/18k, 58/11k , 58/67k , 65/57k , 52/37k , 43/13k , 53/40k

G AWR : 53.8% , G ABC : 34.7K

R : 54/18k , 52/14k , 48/21k , 52/26k , 45/12k , 50/49k , 55/25k

R AWR : 50.8% , R ABC : 23.5K

 

Game 9:Win(2-0) Supremacy / Bottom Tier

G: 51/6k , 46/18k , 45/19k , 51/29k , 38/13k, 48/31k, 53/40k

G AWR : 47.4% , G ABC : 22.2k

R : 51/28k , 50/5k , 49/31k , 42/14k , 47/9k , 54/17k , 50/13k

R AWR : 49% , R ABC : 16.7k

 

Game 10: win (5-0) Supremacy / Bottom Tier

G : 50/49k , 41/9k , 50/9k , 61/5k , 51/26k , 43/8k , 53/40k

G AWR : 49.8% , G ABC : 20.8k

R : 47/13k , 54/24k , 44/13k , 55/31k , 52/17k , 43/7k , 51/10k

R AWR : 49.4% , R ABC : 16.4K

 


Edited by Esh11, 25 April 2019 - 12:15 PM.

                                           

                                                                 

  


Esh11 #26 Posted 25 April 2019 - 12:10 PM

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Conspiracy Theory 1 ; I am always bottom tier . 

There might be some truth in this . I was top tier only twice . When I was top tier i won 1 game and lost the other . However this might have something to do with playing tier 7 . A lot of people play tier 8 tanks to grind credits and people might be avoiding playing tier 7 due to the abundance of Smashers .

CT 2 : All new players on my team and veterans on red team : Not true

CT 3 : All 40% nubs on my team and 60% pros on red team : Not true

Now this is a very limited sample played with just one tank . If I had played another tank in a different tier or a mix of tanks results might be different . Results might also vary depending on time of play . 

Now Green Team WR was better than Red Team WR on 5 occasions . So exactly 50 - 50 distribution . Although at times the difference was negligible and I had rounded off the decimals .

Green Team Battle count though was in my favor 7 times out of 10 .

When G AWR > R AWR the result was 4-1 in Greens favor

When G AWR < R AWR result was 3-2 in Greens favor

When G ABC > R ABC result was 5-2 

When G ABC < R ABC result was 2-1

Now I am beginning to believe that Battle count is a bit more important than WR however as you can see in game 7 , the battle count was heavily in our favor . But the reds had a 61% wr player who carried their team .


Edited by Esh11, 25 April 2019 - 12:24 PM.

                                           

                                                                 

  


Esh11 #27 Posted 25 April 2019 - 12:40 PM

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Result screen of game 9 and game 10 if you want to verify the numbers I have put . I have all 10 screen shots however I don't know to put them all without taking too much space .

Edited by Esh11, 25 April 2019 - 12:42 PM.

                                           

                                                                 

  


__GetFunked__ #28 Posted 25 April 2019 - 12:45 PM

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View PostEsh11, on 25 April 2019 - 12:10 PM, said:

Conspiracy Theory 1 ; I am always bottom tier . 

There might be some truth in this . I was top tier only twice . When I was top tier i won 1 game and lost the other . However this might have something to do with playing tier 7 . A lot of people play tier 8 tanks to grind credits and people might be avoiding playing tier 7 due to the abundance of Smashers .

CT 2 : All new players on my team and veterans on red team : Not true

CT 3 : All 40% nubs on my team and 60% pros on red team : Not true

Now this is a very limited sample played with just one tank . If I had played another tank in a different tier or a mix of tanks results might be different . Results might also vary depending on time of play . 

Now Green Team WR was better than Red Team WR on 5 occasions . So exactly 50 - 50 distribution . Although at times the difference was negligible and I had rounded off the decimals .

Green Team Battle count though was in my favor 7 times out of 10 .

When G AWR > R AWR the result was 4-1 in Greens favor

When G AWR < R AWR result was 3-2 in Greens favor

When G ABC > R ABC result was 5-2 

When G ABC < R ABC result was 2-1

Now I am beginning to believe that Battle count is a bit more important than WR however as you can see in game 7 , the battle count was heavily in our favor . But the reds had a 61% wr player who carried their team .

 

Thanks for doing all that - knew it would be a lot of work.

 

Looking at your small sample size, I think everything generally looks fairly well matched/even. I would say perhaps only game 8 was favoured a little to heavily in your teams direction with ABD and WR but not massively so.

 

Like you said, often just having a Unicum on your side or the oppo can be the telling difference like you mentioned in game 7. At the same time, it only tankes one poor player to make a stupid move that starts a domino effect in a closely matched battle for you to lose.

 

Small sample like you say and those 10 games gave you a 70% winrate. What I would like to see if you did the same tomorrow, same tank. As mentioned, my suspicions are more being selected for the 'good team or perhaps good RNG' side of the pool on a daily/session/mission reset basis.  



Esh11 #29 Posted 25 April 2019 - 12:57 PM

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View Post__GetFunked__, on 25 April 2019 - 12:45 PM, said:

 

Thanks for doing all that - knew it would be a lot of work.

 

Looking at your small sample size, I think everything generally looks fairly well matched/even. I would say perhaps only game 8 was favoured a little to heavily in your teams direction with ABD and WR but not massively so.

 

Like you said, often just having a Unicum on your side or the oppo can be the telling difference like you mentioned in game 7. At the same time, it only tankes one poor player to make a stupid move that starts a domino effect in a closely matched battle for you to lose.

 

Small sample like you say and those 10 games gave you a 70% winrate. What I would like to see if you did the same tomorrow, same tank. As mentioned, my suspicions are more being selected for the 'good team or perhaps good RNG' side of the pool on a daily/session/mission reset basis.  

 

I think Win rates of both teams are quite closely matched on most occasions , maybe only 1 or 2% difference . However battle numbers can vary by as much as 10K average in favor of one team which is huge . However an exceptional player will usually overcome this and carry his team . I think MM takes into count the WR and not number of battles while forming the teams .

                                           

                                                                 

  


erwin10001 #30 Posted 25 April 2019 - 03:51 PM

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Thanks for the analysis.

I am low tier way too often and with the upper tier full of beginners. Here are my last 12 games. Playing my favourites Bromwell and Type 62, I end up lower tier 5 games and upper tier 2 games. Actually more than that. To those that say its a factor of how many players in a particular tier looking for games, I'll say that applies to times when there are very few players. When there are more players some other algorithm kicks in. For example, I play in tier 6 and keep meeting t7, this suggests that if I go play t7, i should be upper tier? But changing tiers still results in my being lower tier. So the lower way to play upper tier is to play T10... 



__GetFunked__ #31 Posted 25 April 2019 - 11:39 PM

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Good point about being bottom tier - I find this to be the case too. It often easily outweighs how often I am top tier and it's very hard to carry a team (almost impossible) at higher tiers when you're bottom tier and your team is 40-50%.

BossArdnutz #32 Posted 25 April 2019 - 11:56 PM

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There's an easier way to do this than writing stuff down. A player on the European server developed a bunch of python scripts that automate the analysis using replay files: https://github.com/J...aster/README.md

Forum thread about it: http://forum.wotblit...nalyze-replays/

krad55 #33 Posted 26 April 2019 - 06:15 AM

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And "proving" that MM is rigged, will do exactly what?

 

It will not lead to class action against WG, because it's not possible to actually prove anything, so it's not an easy money for lawyers, and regulatory institutions are not interested.

It may temporarily feel good to "prove" something here in the forum, but in the long run, if it really feels important if the game is rigged or not, there might be a bigger issue. 
It is similar to gambling addiction. It is better to cure it by stopping gambling instead of trying to prove casino was rigged, even if it really was.

 

 



TnkCmndrToo #34 Posted 26 April 2019 - 06:17 AM

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View Postkrad55, on 26 April 2019 - 06:15 PM, said:

And "proving" that MM is rigged, will do exactly what?

 

It will not lead to class action against WG, because it's not possible to actually prove anything, so it's not an easy money for lawyers, and regulatory institutions are not interested.

It may temporarily feel good to "prove" something here in the forum, but in the long run, if it really feels important if the game is rigged or not, there might be a bigger issue. 
It is similar to gambling addiction. It is better to cure it by stopping gambling instead of trying to prove casino was rigged, even if it really was.

 

 

 

I'm just doing it for my own interest. Realistically, as you said, we can't do much about it.

Creighton_Abrams #35 Posted 26 April 2019 - 02:32 PM

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If you've paid $ into the Game, then you will likely have a higher chance of maintaining a good rating or chance of being placed in a team that will win.

 

Things I notice more often these days, is that no matter how well placed your shot, you're more often likely to get 0 dmg, no  matter what the audio says you did. Further-more there's a relationship to the missions you receive and what the outcome of your game-play experience is. For example, If you get a mission that says "Survive a battle" then you can be pretty sure you wont, With the new mission structure,  this situation has now gotten a lot worse for non-paying players such as myself.

 

Non-paying players are undertandably supposed to be cannon fodder for the paying ones, but, there has to be a point at which we simply give up and walk away. Then what ? Every paying player can't win....

 think recently WG are trying to find that threshold, and they are clearly on the brink of pushing another set of players away, but those of us who stay will suffer ever decreasing WIn Rates and continue to be the scorn of yourselves.

 

There's nothing to "prove" here other than, perhaps, to make you think a bit more logically before you next lash out at another player with a low win rate and blame the game loss on them.  Win Rates mean really little these days, except to say you're lucky or have being feeding the coffers of WG and have been rewarded accordingly. But that, should not give you the right, to chastise or belttle another player - especially when you don't really know who you're talking to.

 

I've been on the receiving end of a lot of "rubbish talk" which could be rather distressing to younger players and even have adverse effects upon them. The Racism here is staggering - I mean, its sometimes akin to being a Colored person in the US and  wandering into a local KKK beer party by mistake....  Yes, I'm in a Japanese Clan, (and yes a Deputy lead too... !) yet I'm not Japanese (neither partly nor related), yet the stuff the Chinese, Koreans and Taiwanese players (plus the occasional Aussie )  come up with is, a bit OTT.  I can understand of the Historical reasons, though there should be no place for that here, yet... the first thing they look at is  your Clan and regardless whether  you had the Top Dmg or not, your Win Rate will come up next, and especially if you're on the loosing side, you can expect a rant to follow suit.

 

So, yes, Rigged Games do have an impact. And as it's recognized that the games are rigged, holding a Title whatever it is - Tournament Champion, best ranking, highest Win Rate, seems to matter little outside of the WG nutshell, so offers really little to "brag" about and perhaps more to be ashamed about..  Perhaps saving your $ and buying an Atom Ariel would give you more "attention" and .. "skill"...;-)

 

 

 



ZIGZAGZ #36 Posted 29 April 2019 - 02:55 PM

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TODAY's results.  I didn't even do badly... A 1.90+ Damage ratio, averaging 2800 per match in the Grille...  And yet 36% in almost 20 battles c'mon.... That is just sad. I even disconnected in two of the battles and got 0 damage in them. And still 2800 average.

 

 



__GetFunked__ #37 Posted 30 April 2019 - 08:32 AM

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View PostZIGZAGZ, on 29 April 2019 - 02:55 PM, said:

TODAY's results.  I didn't even do badly... A 1.90+ Damage ratio, averaging 2800 per match in the Grille...  And yet 36% in almost 20 battles c'mon.... That is just sad. I even disconnected in two of the battles and got 0 damage in them. And still 2800 average.

 

 

 

You got put in the 'bad' team pool - you wait till you play tomorrow it'l be the reverse and you wont be able to lose even if you tried most of the time. 

ddddnnnn #38 Posted 30 April 2019 - 02:26 PM

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The fact that many forum-goers appear to end up bottom-tier most of the time brought me to a theory(with absolutely no evidence yet).

 

This might be WG’s response to players who say “This game isn’t fair if I can’t defeat a Tiger II with a Tiger I in 1v1.”(or any other statement that complains about how a tier system is unfair)

By utilizing an algorithm that puts noobish players at top tier would, IN THEORY, get rid of this “PROBLEM”, I guess.

 

This is just a theory based on game reviews I’ve seen and examples of top tier teammates who prefer “alternative tactics”.



Fosknow #39 Posted 01 May 2019 - 02:15 AM

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Someone just say it, WG has algorithm to cheat you.

Someone from WG should be punished.

 



Esh11 #40 Posted 01 May 2019 - 05:48 AM

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View PostFosknow, on 01 May 2019 - 02:15 AM, said:

Someone just say it, WG has algorithm to cheat you.

Someone from WG should be punished.

 

 

Fosknow The Great , you are our leader . We are not bold enough to take on WG . Only you can do this . Lead us on this crusade and we will join you :izmena:

Edited by Esh11, 01 May 2019 - 05:48 AM.

                                           

                                                                 

  





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