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Loosing streaks - across Accounts


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__ForGlory__ #41 Posted 03 July 2018 - 07:04 AM

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View PostGandalf__Greyhame, on 03 July 2018 - 06:08 AM, said:

 

Thanx Lord Melchett for the link . You see , that post  is talking about actual stats and evidence and not just based on personal feeling . One must appreciate the effort the guy made . Now if you look into what he found out :

1. Majority of players are between 45 and 55 WR . 

2. Team with better WR has a greater chance of winning .

3. This guy got a green team with better WR ( even if we discount his own 65% wr , his team still had better wr in 67 games ) - This goes against the popular narrative that high WR players are penalized by putting them with crappy teams . The other post by another guy was solely focused on saying that high wr players have to suffer due to being put in low wr teams . Here this guys data is showing exactly the opposite thing . 

 4. He makes a very important point ," A player with a higher wr is not paired with low wr team mates to 'even out' the the two teams " . Even I was personally convinced that this was the most likely scenario .He basically puts a death star hesh round straight through the popular argument that high wr players are put in low wr teams to drag down their wr . 

5. He says quality of platoon does matter . This is again opposite to some earlier post which said platoons are irrelevant unless they are 75% plus superunicum plats . In fact when playing in plat and when plats on both side were removed he still had a favorable wr in 75% of games which is massive . I mean this is a 65% player , WG is supposed to be dragging his wr down but MM is actually giving him favorable teams .

6. He is 65% player . The earlier guy had written that a blue player faces another blue or purple player all the time and so their WR as he puts comes down to 50% which decreases both their wr's but actually increases the wr of those 40% noobs . Here this guy is saying he faced a 60% wr player in only 16% battles . Shocking isn't it . 

 Now it is possible that WG were really smart and they knew he was doing this and temporarily shut down the rigging . But this is what I was calling for , some real data even if limited to 100 games . His data even if it does not fully prove or disprove the rigged MM conspiracy theory is still based on solid stats and shows us the way forward .

 

The MM is not designed to directly designed to knock down a players WR, it is the opposite. It is designed to give poor players confidence (not quit the game) and to possibly bring in microtransactions. Better players get caught up in this.

 

Better players than me felt the switch in the MM more than a year ago - this is when the MM conversations started - before then the MM was not universally complained about. Something definitely changed.

 

You have to consider that different servers will skew results as the EU server gets 20k players on at peak times where this Asia server gets around 8k. So you would have to at least double those percentages he gave and you could probably add even more on top too.

 

Without being disrespectful, there are a lot of poorer countries in Asia compared to Europe so there will be players on cheaper, lower performance devices and with crappy internet. This will increase the amount of poor players and probably also increase the number of better players as the all-round lower performance on this server will make it easier for better players with better devices to succeed.

 

I think i will run my own tests too, recording everything from 100 games.

 

 



Haubitzenschmitz #42 Posted 03 July 2018 - 07:20 AM

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View PostLord_Melchett, on 03 July 2018 - 04:54 AM, said:

This recent thread on NA server is the best actual evidence analysing many battles that I have seen: http://forum.wotblitz.com/index.php?/topic/92842-what-100-battles-have-told-me-about-win-rate-mm-and-the-players-of-blitz/

 

Everything else posted is anecdotal and, my personal opinion, heavily influenced by confirmation bias.  I'm often guilty of the latter - I think I'm (e.g.) low tier a lot, so I pay attention to when I'm low tier, and not when I'm high tier - it's very easy to do.  I've had long winning streaks and long losing streaks, and accept both as confluences of random MM, tank choices, my skill and the skills of the other players;  and, of course, a hefty dose of RNG.


 

The gunner in my IS5, on the other hand, is clearly being paid off by WG to make me lose . . .

 

Very interesting but utterly worthless, because literally subjective and biased. Why? Because what else could he have possibly proven and showcased as his own outstanding stats and success? That the MM was rigged to his disadvantage?! LOL He even mentioned that it was occasionally rather to his advantage, which comes not as a surprise and no curve fitting is even necessary. To get anywhere close to scientific data, (and there is no other valid data than scientifically gathered data) you would need to collect data on several accounts with various WR, skill levels and other stats. Only taken from one account, they obviously can only account for or prove if the MM is random and free of engineering on that very account and used by this individual. In addition, if the account holder is following a certain approach to the game, using the necessary methodology to improve their WR and stats, (we all know what they typically are), the result would even be less representative for an ordinary account/player. 

 

Also, it does not contradict __CrazyCat__'s observations and theories, in which the best players are actually used as "mercenaries" (he calls them working horses), to "balance" the outcome, in order to (mainly) prevent even the dumbest players and pathetical AFKs, to never drop under lets's say 30-35%. (Has no one ever wondered, how even a notorious Troll's WR, never drops under a certain percentage?! When it actually should).

 

As for me, I surely prefer coherent and credible anecdotical evidence that surprisingly confirms my own observation and experience, to any extensive but unilateral analyses that is biased by design (either knowingly or unknowingly) and tries to prove the opposite of what I experience. 

 

Most importantly, (as I may have pointed out earlier already), some experienced irregularities, occurrences, described  "as objectively and truthfully as possible" by certain individuals (players), are actually proof by themselves. In other words, NO ONE can disprove your actual and educated experience, by trying to prove with solid numbers, that THEY statistically have a very different experience, using their methods, strategies, thus operating under very different circumstances. How good (or selfish) the intention behind such attempt might be, and whatever admirable amount of work it would require, it would be absurd to see it as counter proof! The only actual proof they deliver is that MM is most likely random for them. Isn't it like if the rich man could (and was highly motivated to) deliver proof that the system is not corrupted (engineered), because it does not screw him badly?! 

#30

 

 

 


Edited by Haubitzenschmitz, 03 July 2018 - 07:25 AM.


__ForGlory__ #43 Posted 03 July 2018 - 07:39 AM

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View PostGandalf__Greyhame, on 03 July 2018 - 06:08 AM, said:

 

Thanx Lord Melchett for the link . You see , that post  is talking about actual stats and evidence and not just based on personal feeling . One must appreciate the effort the guy made . Now if you look into what he found out :

1. Majority of players are between 45 and 55 WR . 

2. Team with better WR has a greater chance of winning .

3. This guy got a green team with better WR ( even if we discount his own 65% wr , his team still had better wr in 67 games ) - This goes against the popular narrative that high WR players are penalized by putting them with crappy teams . The other post by another guy was solely focused on saying that high wr players have to suffer due to being put in low wr teams . Here this guys data is showing exactly the opposite thing . 

 4. He makes a very important point ," A player with a higher wr is not paired with low wr team mates to 'even out' the the two teams " . Even I was personally convinced that this was the most likely scenario .He basically puts a death star hesh round straight through the popular argument that high wr players are put in low wr teams to drag down their wr . 

5. He says quality of platoon does matter . This is again opposite to some earlier post which said platoons are irrelevant unless they are 75% plus superunicum plats . In fact when playing in plat and when plats on both side were removed he still had a favorable wr in 75% of games which is massive . I mean this is a 65% player , WG is supposed to be dragging his wr down but MM is actually giving him favorable teams .

6. He is 65% player . The earlier guy had written that a blue player faces another blue or purple player all the time and so their WR as he puts comes down to 50% which decreases both their wr's but actually increases the wr of those 40% noobs . Here this guy is saying he faced a 60% wr player in only 16% battles . Shocking isn't it . 

 Now it is possible that WG were really smart and they knew he was doing this and temporarily shut down the rigging . But this is what I was calling for , some real data even if limited to 100 games . His data even if it does not fully prove or disprove the rigged MM conspiracy theory is still based on solid stats and shows us the way forward .

 

Having actually looked at that post now, really he is just stating the obvious for most of his points. He does have some data but it is not across the board and he is solely using WR as his marker. There will always be less 60+ players at tier 8-10 as a:) they are tougher tiers and b:) many players rush there, destroying their WR in the process but then learn the game and become decent over 1,000's of battles - WR is not everything, experience and more recent WR is more important at those tiers. I know some very good players that have 30,000 plus battles that have stuck at their accounts despite initially being nubs and are more than happy with their 55% winrate as long as they can slowly increase it - if these players started a new account - they would be among the 60+ easily.

 

He has just got it all the wrong way around, the MM is manipulated in such a way to give poor players a decent chance of getting some wins after a stretch of losses. THis keeps their interest in the game rather than giving it up.

 

1. I doubt that is the case here, I would put majority between 40-50%

 

2. Yes it does, of course, which is why the MM will stick a Unicum in a team of 40-50% players with a few hundred battles each experience (to give them a chance) but ultimately it will not be enough against 50+ players with 5k or more battles to their name.

 

3. Again, wrong end of the stick. WG gets nothing out of directly trying to lower the WR of better players and this is not their aim in my opinion. Higher WR players are just the collateral damage as they try to keep bad players happy enough to stay in game and possibly make purchases.

 

4. Again, nothing to do with high WR players. One team is set up to win, usually players that have suffered a losing streak against another team that has probably enjoyed a good winning streak.

 

5. Plats do matter of course, what the WOTBStars said was that there is less chance of a good plat to get affected by the MM manipulation. This is due to it being far more difficult to consistently pit good plats against eachother. Also, a good plat will be in a much better shape to deal with having a team of dollopers backing them up as there are two of them instead of one.

 

6.) He is not taking enough data into it. Using WR alone is not enough. it is not difficult to be a 60% player with 500 battles and 400 average damage to your name, or solely using the t46. This does not make you a good player at say tier 5 when they are suddenly on your team in their 40% WR Crusader. The MM manipulation is designed on a mix of WR and battles if you ask me. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, the standard is much better across the EU server and there are more players so this one 60+ in 16% of battles would have to be doubled at least on the Asia server. That would put it at least 1 in 3 battles here that you meet a fellow 60+ player - again, we will have to do our own studies on this. 



__ForGlory__ #44 Posted 03 July 2018 - 08:02 AM

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View PostHaubitzenschmitz, on 03 July 2018 - 07:20 AM, said:

 

Very interesting but utterly worthless, because literally subjective and biased. Why? Because what else could he have possibly proven and showcased as his own outstanding stats and success? That the MM was rigged to his disadvantage?! LOL He even mentioned that it was occasionally rather to his advantage, which comes not as a surprise and no curve fitting is even necessary. To get anywhere close to scientific data, (and there is no other valid data than scientifically gathered data) you would need to collect data on several accounts with various WR, skill levels and other stats. Only taken from one account, they obviously can only account for or prove if the MM is random and free of engineering on that very account and used by this individual. In addition, if the account holder is following a certain approach to the game, using the necessary methodology to improve their WR and stats, (we all know what they typically are), the result would even be less representative for an ordinary account/player. 

 

Also, it does not contradict __CrazyCat__'s observations and theories, in which the best players are actually used as "mercenaries" (he calls them working horses), to "balance" the outcome, in order to (mainly) prevent even the dumbest players and pathetical AFKs, to never drop under lets's say 30-35%. (Has no one ever wondered, how even a notorious Troll's WR, never drops under a certain percentage?! When it actually should).

 

As for me, I surely prefer coherent and credible anecdotical evidence that surprisingly confirms my own observation and experience, to any extensive but unilateral analyses that is biased by design (either knowingly or unknowingly) and tries to prove the opposite of what I experience. 

 

Most importantly, (as I may have pointed out earlier already), some experienced irregularities, occurrences, described  "as objectively and truthfully as possible" by certain individuals (players), are actually proof by themselves. In other words, NO ONE can disprove your actual and educated experience, by trying to prove with solid numbers, that THEY statistically have a very different experience, using their methods, strategies, thus operating under very different circumstances. How good (or selfish) the intention behind such attempt might be, and whatever admirable amount of work it would require, it would be absurd to see it as counter proof! The only actual proof they deliver is that MM is most likely random for them. Isn't it like if the rich man could (and was highly motivated to) deliver proof that the system is not corrupted (engineered), because it does not screw him badly?! 

#30

 

 

 

 

It does come across as that actually. Seems very biased - using WR only and essentially just saying look how good I am and look at how I performed across 100 battles in my 65% account. I dont think those that believe the MM to be rigged (for want of a better word) actually believe it is designed to penalize better players - not directly anyway. What would be the point of that really? A good player is a good player and is not going to turn around and say "I better go and buy a premium tank to get better" as he will know that this is not going to suddenly make them a bit better (unless its one of those rare OP ones liek the Drac, Helsing or whatnot) - this will be the newer, lower WR players that will say this.

 

The MM is designed for microtransaction purposes, to keep as many (primarily low performing players) as happy as they can. These are the players they are hoping to make some money out of and I would bet are the players they make the 'most' money out of. New players that come in thinking that if they buy the Lowe - they will suddenly be able to handle themselves. Its a balancing act, they need to lose enough to consider buying the tank but also win enough to keep them from quitting.

 

Most experienced players will not spend that much on the game, apart from perhaps collecting tanks. You can only buy a premium once (unless you are stupid and sell it) and once they have the ones they want, they will only consider buying anything new - so their monetary value to WG decreases. New players is where WGs focus lies as these are the new potential cash cows that dont have any prem tanks.



Gandalf__Greyhame #45 Posted 03 July 2018 - 08:16 AM

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Kindly present a method which can provide the data which will prove what you are saying . Subjective experience will always be biased . You cannot just counter someone who has presented any data even if it is a small sample simply by saying that is not what i have experienced . If you are saying wr is not sufficient to prove or disprove rigged mm then what other data / factors are required ? You suggest a method and people can carry out their own experiment .

                                                                

 

   


__ForGlory__ #46 Posted 03 July 2018 - 08:56 AM

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View PostGandalf__Greyhame, on 03 July 2018 - 08:16 AM, said:

Kindly present a method which can provide the data which will prove what you are saying . Subjective experience will always be biased . You cannot just counter someone who has presented any data even if it is a small sample simply by saying that is not what i have experienced . If you are saying wr is not sufficient to prove or disprove rigged mm then what other data / factors are required ? You suggest a method and people can carry out their own experiment .

 

I think you know there are more factors required, a 60+ with 5 battles holds no weight over a guy 5k battles with 55% in most cases.

 

It is impossible to prove in either direction anyway as I am sure you will agree. No matter the tests and data only WG will know and I am certain they will never admit to it.

 

WG would not be the first to manipulate MM and will not be the last. They are here to make money afterall but I think many (including me) would be able to accept it if we were told how it is. I can compete well enough despite the manipulation - not as good as before it started to happen but that is fine.

 

Other notes: I played an old account last night that had been dormant for a year - I had an unbelievable run of luck with regards to teams and wins. Felt like it was almost designed for me to win. Now why would the MM be manipulated to favor a returning player? Especially one that had previously spent money on that account.

 

I would also like to bring up the obvious increase in players in recent months.The sparts controversy drove players to a low never seen on this game and it took some time for the playerbase to slowly grow back to how it is now. During that time I saw a lot of 'obvious' bots - you know the type, the ones sat in base with their turrets turning methodically. I no longer see these bots anymore. Would it be outrageous to suggest that WG themselves were putting bots in battles to increase numbers? Now they are no longer needed you never see them.

 

If WG can do that - I have no doubts that they would also manipulate the MM.

 



Haubitzenschmitz #47 Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:31 AM

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Here is some more food for the think-tank... or oil in the fire... see it as you like.

 

I was just browsing around the garage of an "experimental account", and saw that extra MT25 I might want to upgrade to LTTP some day...

I played 6 games and lost all in a row, being after the 2X expo, truth to be told. I gave up on it after the last loss. Half of them, I might not have done really great, and the others .... well, I either did the most hit points or did my best anyway, but it did not seem that I could make enough difference in order to win any of them.

Now, my point - sorry for the long introduction... because I was thinking, wait a second... If that would happen tomorrow, when I start the event, to get my first Star

and actually would not even get ONE after 6 games??!?!?! 

 

The event would be a nice opportunity to gather data from various sources (players), counting how many games it takes on each tank to win the first game and the star.

If all (including MM) is random and clean, the average on all games, counting all participants... would statistically be 1.5 games per star, or 15 games to get 10 stars.

If 1.5 games per star would actually be the cross total (or better) of, let's say 20 participants (or 100 for that matter), I would take back everything I have ever said about MM being fishy, and I would apologise formally at WG. LOL

 

 


Edited by Haubitzenschmitz, 03 July 2018 - 11:52 AM.


Haubitzenschmitz #48 Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:35 AM

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View Post__ForGlory__, on 03 July 2018 - 08:56 AM, said:

Other notes: I played an old account last night that had been dormant for a year - I had an unbelievable run of luck with regards to teams and wins. Felt like it was almost designed for me to win. Now why would the MM be manipulated to favor a returning player? Especially one that had previously spent money on that account.

 

 

Well, now that's a simple answer to a simple question! Have you thought of the opposite, a returning player who has a loosing strike of 10 or 15, for the first games he returns?!!

How likely would that player quit the game and not open it again any soon? That's why LOL



Haubitzenschmitz #49 Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:48 AM

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View PostGandalf__Greyhame, on 03 July 2018 - 08:16 AM, said:

Kindly present a method which can provide the data which will prove what you are saying . Subjective experience will always be biased . You cannot just counter someone who has presented any data even if it is a small sample simply by saying that is not what i have experienced . If you are saying wr is not sufficient to prove or disprove rigged mm then what other data / factors are required ? You suggest a method and people can carry out their own experiment .

 

The same method, but using data of as many players as possible (in a representative yet manageable scale). Not just because it is indeed obvious that different players experience the

impact of MM, very differently, but for the sake of objectivity and accuracy. Any data based on a single account/payer, can't possible detect any kind of engineering. Especially using someone's who actually does not perceive any irregularities, but is convinced that MM is fair, unbiased, utterly and absolutely random. Why would you examine a patient on a particular kind of disease, when they tell you that they feel great and have no symptoms whatsoever, and conclude from the diagnosis of perfect health, that everybody else who complains about symptoms all the time would be as healthy as the one you examined?! 



Gandalf__Greyhame #50 Posted 03 July 2018 - 01:59 PM

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First I put the germany logo in my display pic . They got knocked out . Then I put spain logo . They are gone as well . Now if England get knocked out I will be convinced world cup is rigged !! :izmena:

                                                                

 

   


NocturnZing #51 Posted 03 July 2018 - 04:23 PM

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View PostGandalf__Greyhame, on 03 July 2018 - 01:59 PM, said:

First I put the germany logo in my display pic . They got knocked out . Then I put spain logo . They are gone as well . Now if England get knocked out I will be convinced world cup is rigged !! :izmena:

 

Once you confirm that with the England logo, you can start putting DPs with names of trolls, that way they can also be knocked out :D :bush:

__ForGlory__ #52 Posted 03 July 2018 - 04:46 PM

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View PostGandalf__Greyhame, on 03 July 2018 - 01:59 PM, said:

First I put the germany logo in my display pic . They got knocked out . Then I put spain logo . They are gone as well . Now if England get knocked out I will be convinced world cup is rigged !! :izmena:

 

Please take it down then - I am English!

Gandalf__Greyhame #53 Posted 03 July 2018 - 05:06 PM

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The three lions wont get any better match making than this to make it to the finals . If they still can't then they are noobs .

                                                                

 

   


Haubitzenschmitz #54 Posted 04 July 2018 - 01:50 AM

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View PostGandalf__Greyhame, on 03 July 2018 - 01:59 PM, said:

First I put the germany logo in my display pic . They got knocked out . Then I put spain logo . They are gone as well . Now if England get knocked out I will be convinced world cup is rigged !! :izmena:

 

To travesty is a topic is the last resort, when you run out of valid arguments.

 

Here is one more for you! Try if on the two X5 days of the event, it is even harder to get the first win on each tank. If it is easier or the same than in X2 days or after the first win, WG will be canonised by the Church and all other holly institutions LOL

 



Creighton_Abrams #55 Posted 04 July 2018 - 05:00 AM

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I setup a couple... of accounts, each playing the BT-7 art. Stats range from "Super Unicom" to  "Very Bad" for that tank... same person playing them, so what's different ?

 

Incidentally drop rate for Tanks on Crates appears to be 1 in 10 (so far) on the medium crate. I guess... (as I haven't been bothered to setup 100 accounts), that the drop rate on Huge crates would be 1 in 100. 

 

On the "Very Bad" stats account, I have found that on a number of occasions, the opposing team works together (unlike the 1-50 games player on my team), often in those cases those players have several 1000 of games (the max being 70k ). WG says it doesn't consider # of games in the MM process...  though I wonder how it does so often place so many together in the opposing team so consistently. (On these dummy accounts, I've been checking stats on both sides regardless win/loose1).   

 

A times, particularly in the early hours,  I think maybe Tournament focused clans/players  are given preference to be together on the same team... that's something I should try and test for in future. I would make sense from a business perspective, as such players need "Credits" unless they're playing with $.  

 

 


Edited by Creighton_Abrams, 04 July 2018 - 05:10 AM.


Creighton_Abrams #56 Posted 04 July 2018 - 05:02 AM

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It's quite easy to imagine that the World Cup is Rigged The Chinese gambling Industry could well be running the show this year.. a lot of the Adverts you see during games are in Chinese, presumably  targeting the main audience - who are simply Gambling... a lot of Chinese suicide after games too, which gives you an insight into the depth that they're involved in such activities.

 



Creighton_Abrams #57 Posted 04 July 2018 - 05:04 AM

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FYI Japan had a small Octopus who was a TV ( 'Reality' ) Star predicting the outcome of games, after the last Japan match, the Octopus became Sushi pretty quickly.

 


Edited by Creighton_Abrams, 04 July 2018 - 05:04 AM.


Gandalf__Greyhame #58 Posted 04 July 2018 - 05:59 AM

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View PostHaubitzenschmitz, on 04 July 2018 - 01:50 AM, said:

View PostGandalf__Greyhame, on 03 July 2018 - 01:59 PM, said:

First I put the germany logo in my display pic . They got knocked out . Then I put spain logo . They are gone as well . Now if England get knocked out I will be convinced world cup is rigged !! :izmena:

 

To travesty is a topic is the last resort, when you run out of valid arguments.

 

Here is one more for you! Try if on the two X5 days of the event, it is even harder to get the first win on each tank. If it is easier or the same than in X2 days or after the first win, WG will be canonised by the Church and all other holly institutions LOL

 

To travesty is a topic is the last resort ..... where is this resort ? Does it have a nice beach ? 

I never run out of arguments ad I never back down .

All your arguments are based on personal feeling . You present no evidence . Kindly don't continue replying unless you have any actual evidence .



Gandalf__Greyhame #59 Posted 04 July 2018 - 06:01 AM

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View Post__ForGlory__, on 03 July 2018 - 04:46 PM, said:

 

Please take it down then - I am English!

 

View PostNocturnZing, on 03 July 2018 - 04:23 PM, said:

 

Once you confirm that with the England logo, you can start putting DPs with names of trolls, that way they can also be knocked out :D :bush:

 

England team is so strong the curse did not work !! :izmena:

Edited by Gandalf__Greyhame, 04 July 2018 - 06:01 AM.

                                                                

 

   


Haubitzenschmitz #60 Posted 04 July 2018 - 07:18 AM

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View PostGandalf__Greyhame, on 04 July 2018 - 05:59 AM, said:

To travesty is a topic is the last resort ..... where is this resort ? Does it have a nice beach ? 

I never run out of arguments ad I never back down .

All your arguments are based on personal feeling . You present no evidence . Kindly don't continue replying unless you have any actual evidence .

 

You asked kindly and i answered kindly, I gave a method to verify it more objectively and accurately on your request. I made another proposal and suggestion how to find out more. ALL you come up is irony and sarcasm, and no counter argument, from that I must conclude you do not have any. Am I tempted or challenged to prove you anything, based on that? The answer is a clear NO. Am I in the business of compiling statistics for other people who are biased in their own way? One more clear NO. Kindly do not answer if you have no correlated answers or counterargument to what I suggest.

 

And most importantly, my arguments are not just based on "personal feelings", but on long observation and notes, educated guesses and conclusions resulting from them. There is very little emotion involved here, I can kindly assure you that!
 

 


Edited by Haubitzenschmitz, 04 July 2018 - 07:34 AM.





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